Effects of Slavery on America

Effects of Slavery on American History Andrew Avila US History 1301 Dr. Raley April 18, 2013 The U. S. Constitution is primarily based on compromise between larger and smaller states, and more importantly, between northern and southern states. One major issue of the northern and southern states throughout American history is the topic of slavery. Although agreements such as the Three-Fifths Compromise in 1787, and the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 were adapted to reduce and outlaw slavery, it took many years for slavery to be completely abolished and allow blacks the freedom they had been longing for.The Three-Fifths Compromise was a agreement reached at the Constitutional Convention of 1787 in Philadelphia in which three-fifths of states’ slaves would be counted as representation regarding distribution of taxes and apportionment of members to the House of Representatives[1]. This meant that slave owners would be taxed on the number of slaves they owned as well as states receiv ing representation for the allotted 3/5, or â€Å"Federal ratio,† of slaves owned.During the Continental Congress of 1783, a committee was appointed to decide upon a method to be integrated in the Articles of Confederation to prevent states from ignoring their fair share of the tax burden. The proposed fix was to tax based on population rather than property value. Delegates who opposed slavery only wanted to count all free inhabitants of each state, while supporters of slavery wanted to count all slaves for representation purposes only and not for taxation.Being that southern states were heavily populated with slaves, naturally, northern states feared that the south would gain a political upper-hand and become extremely powerful[2]. Seeing such opposition from northern and southern states, representatives James Wilson and Roger Sherman came up with a plan that stemmed from the one proposed at the Continental Congress. The Three-Fifths Compromise, which was designed to meet th e demands of both sides, gave the south their much anticipated representation, while easing the fears of the north of being politically overpowered by the south[3].After the Virginia Plan was rejected, the Three-Fifths Compromise seemed to guarantee more political power to the south. As a result, southern states dominated the Presidency and Speakership of the House. While the south gained more representation because of the higher ownership of slaves, the north gained very little. However, the longterm results of the Three-Fifths Compromise did not work well to the southern states’ advantage[4]. The increased importation of slaves to the south upset the north leading to the Missouri Compromise.The Missouri Compromise prohibited slavery in the former Louisiana Territory north of the 36o 30’. By 1820, the northern states began to grow faster than southern states resulting in the fall from southern representation in the House of Representatives. The Three-Fifths Compromise paved the way for the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 which outlaws slavery. However, the Thirteenth Amendment was meant to guarantee slavery. In 1863, Abraham Lincoln issued an Emancipation Proclamation declaring that any people held as slaves would be free[5].Many people questioned the validity of the Proclamation as well as President Lincoln’s power. Because President Lincoln failed to mention that slaves in the loyalist states would be free in the Proclamation, many doubted the effect would last beyond restoration of the states[6]. Although the Emancipation Proclamation declared that slaves would be free, it did not actually free any slaves in border states nor did it abolish slavery. President Lincoln and other supporters decided it was necessary to include an amendment to the Constitution abolishing slavery.The Thirteenth Amendment was the first amendment proposed in 60 years. The Thirteenth Amendment was the only slavery-related bill to oppose and abolish slavery while o ther bills protected slavery[7]. Eventually, the bill was taken to the Senate and passed on April 8, 1864. Although the bill was passed as an effort to keep the country united, it was stopped from being ratified as the south began to secede and the Union dissolved. This prevented the bill from becoming an actual law. President Lincoln took active measures to get the proposed bill on the Republican Party platform for the 1864 presidential election.After several months of debate, the bill finally reached the two-thirds vote on January 31, 1865, although the signed amendment’s archival copy states the bill was passed February 1, 1865[8]. After the approval of the Thirteenth Amendment, Congress passed four statutes known as the Reconstruction Acts. The Reconstruction Congress was required to pass two laws that implemented the Thirteenth Amendment[9]. The first was the Civil Rights Act declaring that freed slaves were allowed to enjoy the same rights as white people. This law made it a crime on the federal level to deprived freed slaves of these rights.The second was the Anti-Peonage Act of 1867 which made the holding of any person as a slave unlawful[10]. The Thirteenth Amendment completed the abolition of slavery in the United States. The process to abolish slavery began with President Lincoln’s issuing of the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863. Although the Thirteenth Amendment outlaws slavery and involuntary servitude, officials had to selectively enforce laws such as vagrancy forcing blacks to be subject to involuntary servitude. The southern states' attitudes towards abolition made it nearly impossible for blacks to shake being ex-slaves.After the abolition of slavery, life for Black Americans got even more difficult before it could get better. Public beatings and lynchings became and everyday occurrence through â€Å"white supremacy groups† such as the Ku Klux Klan. Segregation between whites and blacks had become widespread at the time a s well. Many blacks found it difficult to survive off the poor wages they received and terrible living situations. Slavery was not legal or illegal until each individual state made it so. Up until that point, slavery was an accepted common law practice.However, after slavery was declared illegal in individual states and had been outlawed, many slave owners, and slaves alike, needed to adjust to the newly acquired changes. Needless to say, this was a change that would take many years to adapt to. To this day, these movements are still discussed as the judicial system . Many people still do not support the abolition of slavery. The United States Constitution states that slavery and involuntary servitude are illegal unless ordered by the court. However, this does not mean that any individual may own a slave.This simply means that if a person is convicted of a crime, said person may be ordered to prison or community service. This however does not mean that there are absolutely no cases of slavery in America today. Although in slightly different form, slavery still exists today despite the trial and error endured by the American government to abolish slavery in its entirety. Slavery today is known as human trafficking. Not only does human trafficking include involuntary servitude and forced labor, but various other acts that are to be carried out by those who are being held as slaves.Human trafficking is one of the biggest crimes committed today. Throughout history many measures have been taken to prohibit and outlaw slavery. However, documents such as the Three-Fifths Compromise and the Thirteenth Amendment were two of the major stepping stones in the direction of abolishing slavery. The issue of slavery has been around since the beginning of the United States and has undergone many changes over time. With agreements such as the Three-Fifths Compromise and the Thirteenth Amendment, slavery was able to be decreased and eventually abolished.Bibliography Peter Robins on. Uncommon Knowledge: A Slave to the System? Thomas Jefferson and Slavery. Hoover Institution, 2009. Garry Wills. â€Å"Negro President†: Jefferson and the Slave Power. Houghton Mifflin Company. New York, 2003. Herman Belz. Emancipation and Equal Rights: Politics and Constitutionalism in the Civil War Era. New York, 1978. Michael Vorenberg. Final Freedom: The Civil War, the Abolition of Slavery, and the Thirteenth Amendment. Cambridge University Press, 2001. Report of the Brown University Steering Committee on Slavery and Justice.The House Joint Resolution proposing the 13th amendment to the Constitution, January 31, 1865; Enrolled Acts and Resolutions of Congress, 1789-1999; General Records of the United States Government; Record Group 11; National Archives Harp Weekly. Ratification and Results. 2008. Oman Nathan. Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment. Minnesota Law Review, Forthcoming. 2008. Unknown Author. â€Å"The Slavery Compromises†. University of Louisiana-Lafayette Computing Support Services. Unknown Date. Gilder Lehrman Institute. The Three-Fifths Compromise. Digital History. 2013. ———————- [1] Gilder Lehrman Institute. The Three-Fifths Compromise. Digital History. 2013. [2] Peter Robinson. Uncommon Knowledge: A Slave to the System? Thomas Jefferson and Slavery. Hoover Institution, 2009. [3] Unknown Author. â€Å"The Slavery Compromises†. University of Louisiana-Lafayette Computing Support Services. Unknown Date [4] Peter Robinson. Uncommon Knowledge: A Slave to the System? Thomas Jefferson and Slavery. Hoover Institution, 2009. [5] Herman Belz. Emancipation and Equal Rights: Politics and Constitutionalism in the Civil War Era. New York, 1978. 6] Michael Vorenberg. Final Freedom: The Civil War, the Abolition of Slavery, and the Thirteenth Amendment. Cambridge University Press, 2001. [7] 3Herman Belz. Emancipation and Equal Rights: Politics and Constitutionalism in the Civil War Era. New York, 1978. [8] 3Herman Belz. Emancipation and Equal Rights: Politics and Constitutionalism in the Civil War Era. New York, 1978. [9] Oman Nathan. Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment. Minnesota Law Review, Forthcoming. 2008. [10] Oman Nathan. Specific Performance and the Thirteenth Amendment. Minnesota Law Review, Forthcoming. 2008.

Traditional vs. Online Education

The battle between online education and traditional education has been raging since online school began. With online education, there is a higher chance for success due to the personalized approach to learning. Along with success in the learning area, you can also be successful in the business area of life. With online education, there is a much greater acceptance rate due to the â€Å"less strict† guidelines, as well as a broader area of class options because of the online aspect. For this reason, online education, is in my eyes, a much better choice than traditional education.Although face to face contact is considered the best form of education, online education is much more flexible than traditional education. Not everyone can make time to sit in a lecture hall at eleven a. m. five days a week. Since it is much easier to keep a job while attending an online school, it allows you to make other commitments as well as have other activities due to a regular income. It is easie r to keep a steady job and stay in school due to such flexible hours from an online education. Since Traditional classrooms have a schedule that you must stick to, it is much harder to keep a job.You can have other commitments as well due to the fact that most online schools have all assignments due on one day. You complete your degree while balancing your work and family responsibilities. At a traditional school, you are exposed to a variety of distractions in the classroom that are seemingly uncontrollable. While in an online school, because your classroom is wherever you choose, it is easier to stay focused without the distractions of the classroom. At home, you are able to control what is around you, unlike in a classroom where distractions are uncontrollable.Some online degree programs have frequent start dates, some even weekly. This allows you the opportunity to complete courses quickly. Online schooling gives you a broader spectrum of choices for your major as well as a much greater acceptance rate than traditional college. Online education would be ideal because of the flexible nature of classes offered. Since school online is well, online, they provide a much greater choice of classes and degrees that are more suitable for your own personal standards. You do not have to fight for classes as you would have to in a traditional school environment.So with all that, I consider online education to be a much more practical option for schooling. There are many more upsides to online education than there are down sides. In my opinion, there are many more downsides to traditional education than there are to online education. For this reason, online education, is in my eyes, a much better choice than traditional education. Although face to face contact is considered the best form of education, online education is much more flexible than traditional education.

Judaism 1 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Judaism 1 - Essay Example This statement fits a theological statement since logic and theology clash with each other. This statement is inclined towards faith rather than a legal statement. The second key element commandment is to learn Torah and to teach it to others. No doubt, Torah is a vital book in Judaism as it tells Jews about past events. For Jews, there is no â€Å"old testament,† as the New Testament is no part of Jewish scripture. With any sacred text, interpretations vary as Jews from traditional to modern. For instance, the concept of interest, can very amongst scholars on what interest really is defined as. Is it consider to be interest to charge money on money or making a profit through a product? This is again is a theological statement since Torah is a sacred text that is not considered as law or implemented as law. It is not an educational context text per se, but is regarded highly in Judaism as a sacred and the only true text. Hence, it’s a theological statement and not a mor al or a logical statement. Another key component that is part of 613 Commandments is being keen in prayers. For observant Jews, prayer is vital in their religion. Prayers should be done with right intention, clarity and observance. The law means that a Jew who is keen in his prayers will reach salvation in my opinion. The law means that Jews to acknowledge the bounties of God, must be engaged in his remembrance.

Article Aalysis Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Article Aalysis - Coursework Example In seeking to understand the article which was selected for this brief analysis, US fuel prices take a slight dip†, the reader sees very clear and inherent understandings of the way in which fuel prices within the United States, and elsewhere throughout the world for that matter, are not directly linked to the ability of the environment to produce this resource and/or the overall expectation of the diminished resource in general. Rather, the price of fuel/oil is ultimately tied to the expectation of stability in the world . Moreover, unity and stability within a particular region that is somewhat close or geographically important to a trade route can send oil prices skyrocketing. As such, it is easy to understand why the past several months have seen a market spiked with regards to the price of oil worldwide. ... Such a judgment is made with respect to the fact that without major alterations with regards the way in which the global economy interacts, individuals are not able to alter their consumption of oil without widespread and far-reaching repercussions being felt within their own personal life and within the broader economic sense of their respective regions. In seeking to fulfill a further requirement of this brief analysis, the instructions indicated that the student was responsible for describing what is occurred to the change in supply of the particular product. In short, nothing has changed. Rather, fear within the futures market has driven up price and caused investors to panic with regards to what may be the case within the next few months/years. Yet, it is unfair to say that changes in supply do not occur within the oil market. Hardly a week passes without an article being written, or a newsworthy item being referenced that considers the way in which the oil-producing nations of the world (OPEC) have either increased or reduced supply as a means of deriving up or driving down prices of oil (Piazza, 2013). Much as they have within the past, Saudi Arabia has been responsive to the increased price of oil throughout the world and has increase the output from their wells so that the price of the substance in question could be nominally reduced. However, all that being said, it is painfully obvious that the ultimate reason for why fuel prices have begun to drop does not have to do with the increased output of one single oil-producing nation; rather, it has to do with the fact that the United States, the Russian Federation, and Syria have all agreed on a tentative resolution through which a United States backed

Organization Behavior - 3 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Organization Behavior - 3 - Essay Example An open system focuses on the throughputs that are taken from the environment. The throughputs are then given back to the environment and in this way; the open system completes its cycle. The open system perspective plays a key role in determining the organizational effectiveness in a sense that the system receives inputs from the environment and its outputs are accepted from the external environment. The open system exchanges the feedback with the external environment of the organization, which helps the organization determine its effectiveness. The feedback, which is exchanged with the external environments, is analyzed in order to determine the changes that are needed to achieve the organizational goals and objectives. Therefore, we can say that the open system perspective is one of the integral perspectives of an organizational effectiveness because it helps the organization achieve its goals in a successful manner. There are five basic types of behaviors included in the organizational behavior literature. The types of behaviors include task performance, organizational citizenship, counterproductive work behaviors, joining and staying with the organization, and maintaining work attendance. All these types of behaviors are of significant importance for the success of an organization. Task performance refers to those goal-directed behaviors that are under the control of individuals. This type of behavior is used to transform the raw materials into the finished goods. If we take example of employees, we can say that employees usually have more than one dimensions for performance. In task performance behavior, all of the dimensions are analyzed in order to evaluate the employee’s performance. In my view, task performance behavior is one of the most significant behaviors because this behavior is directly related to the performance of employees. Organizational citizenship behavior

Research Methods Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Research Methods - Essay Example Consumers are having a great experience of being able to shop anywhere, anytime and with any device and this have resulted in retail shop owners to be challenged with respect to their sales and footfall as many are in favour of online shopping. The key question that the research paper is set to answer is how is the increasing amount of online retailers affecting the footfall in retail shops and sales? Research Problem How does online shopping affect retail business?   Hypotheses i. Increased online retailers and shopping has both substitution and complementarity effects on traditional in-store retail shops. ii. Increased online shopping reduces footfall in retail shops and sales. Online retailers have the capability to replace traditional retail stores/shops. Today, technological advancements have resulted in changes in the way operations are carried out in the business world, how and where people work, shop as well as the lifestyles of different people across the globe. Various su ccessful research attempts have been made to explain the impacts of technology on how and where people work and how this affects their travel trends. Most recent developments have focused on e-shopping/online shopping/online retailers due to its unparalleled proliferation. A 2007 US research by InternetRetailer.com (2008) revealed that the number of online shoppers in the country had increased with their estimated spending rising by a 19 percent margin as well, recording a figure in the regions of 136 billion US dollars in 2007. Despite this increment, online shopping accounted for only 4 percent of the country’s total retail sales. Another Netherlands research showed similar trends with respect to online sales; increasing from just below 200 million Euros in 1999 to just above 1.5 billion Euros in 2004 (Farag, 2006). Online buying could be dominant in certain specific future markets like digital assets. In essence, online shopping could be a substitute for traditional shops. For the purposes of this research, the use of the term online shopping refers to online retailers as well as online searching or rather product information search, unless stated otherwise. Literature Review Many studies have been conducted in the technology field with respect to e-shopping yet little empirical studies exist that relate to e-shopping and the number of shoppers entering traditional shops on a given business day and or the sales made by traditional retail shops. In the context of e-shopping, Mokhtarian (2004) reveals that substitution refers to the replacement of the physical trip to traditional shopping stores with online transactions. Furthermore, the concept of complementarity emerges with respect to information search where e-shopping results in the emergence of new demands for trips to traditional stores. Another research conducted by Anderson, Chatterjee and Lakshmanan (2003) revealed that online shopping does not change the number of people visiting a store, in stead it alters the trips’ characteristics, for instance chaining and timing. According to a study by Sim and Koi (2002) involving a sample of 175 online shoppers from Singapore, 12 percent reduced their trips to traditional stores. Another duo of researchers found that some users of the internet in the Knoxville metropolitan region of the United States had reduced their travel trips to traditional stores. A study by Weltevreden and Van Rietbergen (2007) in the

History of Canadian Labour Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

History of Canadian Labour - Essay Example Triggered by a conflict between metal workers and their bosses, the agitation rapidly spread throughout the city's working class. This essay is going to trace the growth and development of the working class people in the history of Canada between 1880 and 1920. A thorough assessment of the period will be made with regards to simultaneous union and splitting of the working class on the basis of race, gender, region and skills. The Knights of Labor made their presence felt by uniting workers of different types. Gradually the organization spread its control over small towns and villages. It was in 1881 when Hamilton became one of the strongholds of the labor organization, followed by Qubec and BC, Nova Scotia and Manitoba. The local neighboring areas of New Brunswick and Alberta were also parts of the 450 local assemblies across Canada. Labor politics rose to prominence as the Knights of Labor reform group coordinated and controlled the Trades and Labor Congress of Canada. The self-governing labor political campaign, which played a crucial role in terms of growth and development of working class militancy in Canada in the end of the nineteenth century, led to parliamentary lobbying, thus bringing the most pertinent issues of the working class before political and administrative authorities. The fundamental rights of the working class people were brought to notice through intensive campaigning and follow-up mechanisms. The dedication of the Knights leaders and more importantly, the spontaneous participation of labors from all areas of manual works helped enormously to turn the campaign into a success story. The Knights approached Ontario and the West in 1886, but the major success as far as voicing peoples' rights and demands is concerned came in Qubec and Ottawa in the 1890s. The development of working class unions in Canada prior to the World War II hastened up when the Knights of Labor organization was forced out on the ground of duality from the TLC at Berlin in 1902. The influence of the Knights of Labor on the working class did not concern just the idea of making unions, but the intent to curb the monopoly and exploitation of the contemporary capitalist social structure by developing alternatives based on equality and justice. To expatiate furthermore on the thesis topic in hand, one needs to gain a clear insight on the value of skilled labors. In any society, skilled labors do have an upper hand over incompetent labors. The age of rapid spread in industrialization necessitated deployment of efficient labors to maximize output in factories. During the span of forty years from 1880 to 1920, the working class fraternity of Canada orchestrated community business to maximize production. In Toronto, skilled and experienced craftsmen exercised far greater control over their employers in terms of production. The individual as well as collective discipline of veteran labors was considered to be an asset in Canada in those times. The labor unions in Toronto and other places acted forthrightly on choosing the right people for the right cause. But when the industrial capitalization threatened to disturb the balance of the working class society, a protest movement was on the cards. By and large, the working clas

Othello Race Journal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Othello Race Journal - Essay Example This can be seen in the language which is used to describe the character. For instance, throughout the play he is refereed to as â€Å"this Moor†, â€Å"the thick lips†, or more pejorative as â€Å"Barbary horse†, and â€Å"Devil†. ("Elizabethan Thater: Skakespeare in Context" ) Moreover, characters in the play are more prone to believe that Desdemona was poisoned or somehow bewitched and in this way, forced to love Othello than to believe that their relationships are natural. â€Å"Did you by forced courses subdue and poison this young maids affections?† ("Elizabethan Thater: Skakespeare in Context") Obviously, race becomes the crucial feature that sets him apart. Throughout the play, the attitudes towards Othello are much influenced by that fact that he is racially different from the majority in the society. The following creates the tension between the characters and drives the development of the conflict. As a whole, the play reflects the existing at those time anxieties and prejudices relating to interracial marriages and the belief in the white superiority that define the place of Othello among others. In this context, Othello fulfill the role of an outsider in the society which is guided by racial stereotypes and

Online Integrated Marketing Communication Essay Example for Free

Online Integrated Marketing Communication Essay Integrated marketing communication – the evolution of a concept The IMC approach has received almost instant recognition at the end of the 1990s, as a result of the existing trends to reduce the budget allocated to mass advertising campaigns and to concentrate on segmented or personalised communication with final consumers. The increased fragmentation of media and customers, as well as the revolution introduced in mass communication by the new communication channels – internet and mobile communication technologies – has created the need for a new approach to marketing communication, that can insure centralised management and a consistency of corporate messages sent towards various audiences. The concept of IMC was defined in many different, often contradictory, ways: Pickton and Broderick (2001) claim that synergy is the principal benefit of bringing together the various facets of marketing communications in a mutually supportive way. Definition proposed by Keegan et al. (1992, p. 631): Integrated marketing communications is the strategic co-ordination of all messages and media used by an organisation to collectively influence its perceived brand value. At the heart of this definition is the assumption that the credibility and value of both the company and its brand(s) will increase, when messages transmitted to various audiences become consistent across time and targets. Another definition proposed by Duncan (2002, p. 8) demonstrates the current conceptual perception of IMC: A cross-functional process for creating and nourishing profitable relationships with customers and other stakeholders by strategically controlling or influencing all messages sent to these groups and encouraging data-driven, purposeful dialogue with them. The notion of stakeholders implies the shift in the IMC concept from customer target audiences to the inclusion of key stakeholder groups such as employees, investors, suppliers, distributors, media and the social community. The most significant organisation barriers for the implementation of the IMC concept: * lack of horizontal communication; * functional specialisation; * decentralisation; * lack of IMC planning and expertise; * lack of budget; * lack of database technology; * corporate culture; and * fear of change. The impact of the internet technology on marketing communication: The rapid development of the internet in the last ten years has changed the classical communication procedures (Blattberg and Deighton, 1991; Holtz, 1999), because of three specific and co-existent characteristics that differentiate it from any other communication channel: * Interactivity. The internet offers multiple possibilities of interactive communication, acting not only as an interface, but also as a communication agent (allowing a direct interaction between individuals and software applications). The traditional communication channel was uni-directional, Even when communication was considered a two-way process, the institutions had the resources to send information to audiences through a very wide pipeline, while the audiences had only a minuscule pipeline for communicating back. Now, the communication channel is a network, not a pipeline. Communicators have grasped and even embraced this new proximity, fact demonstrated by the vast number of web sites which display â€Å"Contact Us† buttons and links. However, in most of the cases, these new facilities are not fully used. * Transparency. The information published online can be accessed and viewed by any internet user, unless this information is specifically protected. * Memory. The web is a channel not only for transmitting information, but also for storing information – in other words, information published on the web remains in the memory of the network until it is erased. The new realities of how audiences get and use information: * The audience is connected to the organisations * The audience is connected to one another * The audience has access to other information * Audiences pull information (info has to be available where audiences can find it, and it must be customizable) { Today, we get messages from multiple media channels: email, voice mail, faxes, pagers, cell phones, interoffice memos, overnight courier packages, television (with hundreds of channels), radio, internet radio, etc. As a result, the media that used to provide an efficient channel of communication for practitioners have become now only noise that most of the audiences have learned to filter out} Different definitions of IMC: Some retail organisations track the interaction between the online user and their web site: â€Å"the time spent by a client on a specific web page can represent an indication of his/her present interest†. â€Å"We use the results provided by our online behaviour tracking system to create personalised promotions targeted to individual customers†. The meaning is not simply transmitted, but has to be negotiated separately with each online audience. The message needs to be adapted to the specific level of understanding and interpretation of each public, but, on the other hand, has to express the same core organisational values, in order to display a coherent organisational image If the company attempts to reach foreign audiences, the message needs to be adapted to the cultural specificity of the overseas public. This raises important questions regarding the possibility of integrated online marketing communication in the global context: â€Å"we often communicate with customers from various cultural and economic backgrounds. In these conditions we must apply a clear segmentation and positioning strategy, in order to match the needs of every cultural group with our marketing messages.† The specific characteristics of the internet therefore create two conflicting tendencies: (1) the fragmentation of audiences and communication contexts requires the customisation of online marketing messages; but (2) the interactivity, transparency and memory of the web necessitates the consistency of communication and the coherence of the transmitted meaning Below figure presents the place of integrated online marketing communication in the online CRM process of the firm. The customer data/feed-back collected online is used directly to better design and implement the online integrated marketing communication, which are then targeting selected online audiences. Correctly implemented, the IMC program is a continuous cycle of gathering data and implementing response-generating marketing communication which is based on previously gathered consumer data. the specific characteristics of the internet are making the implementation of integrated online marketing communication both inevitable and efficient for an online organisation. The transparency, interactivity and memory of the internet force the organisation to adopt a proactive-reactive attitude in online communication, and to combine consistency and continuity with flexibility and customisation. These characteristics can be integrated by designing and implementing a specific model of integrated online marketing communication. The use of advanced online applications to collect customer data and feed-back information is paramount for the success of the online communication campaign (O’Malley and Mitussis, 2002). Because of the high interactivity of the internet, the communication process has become a real-time dialogue. Important issues relevant for the implementation of integrated online marketing communication have not been addressed because of space and methodology limitations. These areas can represent the subject of future research projects investigating: the management process of integrated online marketing communication; the criteria used for selecting and combing various channels in the online communication mix; the relation between the organisation and web advertising agencies; or the challenges raised by the general integration and co-ordination of online and offline (traditional) communication.

Oliver Twist the novel Essay Example for Free

Oliver Twist the novel Essay In Oliver Twist, the novel, Dickens uses a variety of language techniques to show how villainous Bill Sikes is. The vocabulary he uses is course and elementary. That, with the use of short, sharp sentences gives a fierce thuggish effect. In the film, Bill Sikes is calm in his words however with brutal with his actions. In the film adaptation he is also presented with a delicate, more human side rather than being pot rayed as a monster all the time, like in the novel. This is helped with the non-diegetic sound, to help create and eerie and tense atmosphere. In the novel, Dickens describes him as a Robber, Housekeeper these negative words add to his person as wanting to be the alpha-male. The language Sikes uses is not thought out properly. He says whatever comes into his head and this is why he is always quick to reply. In the film, even though Nancy explains herself, he hits her, and only after hitting her he realises what he has done. In conclusion, the way that Bill Sikes is presented as a villain in both the original novel by Charles Dickens and the BBC film adaptation are quite different. The villainy and the traits of Bill Sikes are portrayed by the language used by Charles Dickens which is short and sharp for fast paced action. The interactions of Bill Sikes with the other characters in the scene and chapter in which Bill Sikes completely ignores Fagin’s warnings and is very brutal to Nancy. Furthermore his villainy is also enhanced by the author’s and the film maker’s craft and use of various devices such as non-diegetic music and how Bill Sikes is called various names in the novel and finally his presentation of a villain is also based upon how he treats Nancy and how he reacts to his surroundings. In the novel he is presented to far more villainous than he is in the BBC film adaptation as in the adaptation there is remorse and regret over Nancy’s death.

Tobacco Industry: Demand And Supply

Tobacco Industry: Demand And Supply The following essay helps us know what demand and supply concept and that we are explaining with the example of cigarette industry. And we have also mentioned the factors affecting the demand and supply for cigarettes in the market. The essay also includes the income effect, impact of close substitutes and compliments, and also the price and income elasticity of the product of the industry. A cigarette is a product consumed through smoking and manufactured out of cured and finely cut tobacco leaves and reconstituted tobacco, often combined with other additives,[1] then rolled or stuffed into a paper-wrapped cylinder (generally equal to 100 mm in length and 10 mm in diameter). Rates of cigarette vary widely. While rates of smoking have leveled off or declined in the developed nations, they continue to rise in developing nations. Cigarettes are the most frequent source of fires in private homes and the European Union willing to ban cigarettes that are not fire-safe by 2011. Fixing the price of a product is a very important factor for an organisation and the product success. Organizations look at the effective demand (demand) and effective supply (supply) of a product to set the best price to generate the maximum revenue for the organisation. If the price of the product increases or decrease then it can affect the demand of the product. As the price of a good rises less will be demanded, and if the price falls more will be demanded (Philp Galt, 2009, Lecture Notes, p: 2). The increase or decrease in price can happen due to the either external or internal or both environments of the organisation. The major companies that are the major share holders of the UK market are 1. Gallaher Group Ltd with the 37.90% of the market share. 2. Imperial Tobacco Ltd with the 35.40% of the market share. 3. Rothmans Ltd with the 18.20% of the market share. The other have the market share of 3.80% and the private label are of 4.70% holds the market share respectively. (Data monitors, 2005) Demand of a product or service can be defined as the amount of a particular economic good or service that a consumer or group of consumers will want to purchase at a given price over a specific period of time. The demand is usually downward sloping, since consumers will want to buy more as the price decreases. Demand for a good or service is determined by different factors other than price, such as the price of substitute goods and complementary goods. In extreme cases, demand may be completely unrelated to price, or nearly infinite at a given price (in the case of the tobacco industry) (Beardshaw, 1991). According to Philp, Dan and Galt (2009) it could be deduced that demand relative to the tobacco industry is caused by a number of aspects in which the key driver is the price of the cigarettes. As a result, for a cigarette (t) the quantity demanded (QtD) represents a function of its price (pt), individual customer (n) income levels (Y1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Yn), other forms of substitutes like electronic cigarettes and herbal cigarettes (r1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦rt-1) and other external factors (E) such as labour, raw material. Then, demand within the tobacco industry can be represented as QtD = f (pt, Y1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Yn, r1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦rt-1, E) Being consistent with this, influential demand in economics (tobacco industry) would be hard to figure the quantity demanded due to the number of determinants required to make-up the cigarette packets price and quantity, therefore, it is assumed that all factors are held constant and the market (quantity demanded) is analysed as a function of packet price. So the quantity demanded QtD = f (pt, Y1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Yn, r1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦rt-1, E) Graphically illustrated will be Following the above figure, managers would be able to depict that the higher the price of the cigarette packets in the industry, the lower the demand for it. Consequently prices will have to move from p0 to p1 in order to increase demand from q0 to q1. Consider two extreme cases. Suppose the price of all cigarettes rises by 1 per cent. The quantity of cigarettes demanded will not affect that much. People who can easily quit smoking have already done so. In contrast, suppose the price of a particular brand of cigarettes rises by 1 per cent, all other brand prices remaining unchanged. We expect a much larger quantity response. Consumers switch from the dearer brand to other brands that also satisfy the nicotine habit. For a particular cigarette brand the demand elasticity is quite high. From the above figure it can be noted that the same $1 tax has a much larger impact on quantity when demand is more elastic than when it is inelastic. Elasticity is the responsiveness of one variable (e.g. demand) to a change in another (e.g. price). This concept is fundamental to understanding how market works. The more elastic variable is, the more responsive the market to changing circumstances (Sloman, 2005). The law of demand states that a fall in the price of a good raises the quantity demanded. The price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded responds to a change in price. (Mankiw, 1998) Cigarette consumption is totally found to be negatively related to price. As far the result of the test, surveys and the studies done before, there result says that increase in price on cigarettes are not that much affected on the demand of it. Many economists viewed that cigarette smoking is illogical and therefore not suitable for usual economic analysis. They believe that demand for cigarettes does not follow the basic law of economics including the downward-sloping demand curve. Findings on how demand for cigarettes changes as consumers income increases is inconsistent. From a number of studies it found that income has either negative effect or insignificant effect on the demand of cigarettes. As far as the government and other health concern trust are trying to stop smoking in public place and in the private work sites because it is very harmful for other who is non smoker and it is not environmental friendly (Bradford, 2003, Vol 9). Government at all levels are adopting the policies to limit smoking. Government also banned that it the customer should be above a legal age to buy the cigarettes. World health organisation survey of smoking control policies in lot of countries indicated that the mostly all the countries have adopted policies to limit smoking in public places. Although the restrictions are primarily intended to reduce non-smokers, they can also affect the smokers since the restrictions reduce the smokers opportunities to smoke or otherwise raise the cost of smoking (Reuijl Leeflang, 1985, Vol 49). Cigarettes was the one of the most advertised and promoted product in the world. But due to some controversial issues many countries restrict it. While some other countries have few restrictions, others ban advertising and promotion completely. Due to the restriction on the advertising and the promotion the demand of the cigarette industry was affected. A lot of new opportunities of the new organization to enter are hard. And the new customers or consumers are decreased. And due to this there is less increase in the quantity of the young generation. Cigarettes are been long been taxed by the government and due to this there is rise in the price in some countries. Taxes are varying from country to country and the price also. The inelastic demand off the product makes good revenue for the government. But in recent taxation has been applied to cigarettes are in order to health. Cigarette taxes in some countries such as the United States have been imposed by various levels of government, national, state and local level. Governments in nearly every country impose taxes on cigarettes and other tobacco products. One of the major factors that affect the demand for any product is due to the substitutes. The more substitutes, the more elastic the demand will be. For example, if the price of petrol went up by  £0.25, consumers could replace public transport. This means that petrol is an elastic good because a raise in price will cause a large decrease in demand as consumers start travelling by the public transport more from private transport. The rise of the fuel price can affect the automobile industry. This factor is also known as the invisible hand (Adam Smith Cited in Mishan, 1993, p 91) which is affected from the variation of the other product or substitutes which affects the main product demand in the market. For the tobacco industry the invisible hand factor is not that much affected but the competition in the market within the industry is high. If the price of alcohol goes up as a whole, there will be probably a little change in the consumption of beer and other products because there are only few substitutes for alcohol. Most people are not willing to give up their enjoyment at any cost and even the alcohol is used in several medicines also so no matter what the price is the consumption of alcohol will be not affected by the substitutes. Therefore, we would say, that alcohol is an inelastic product because of its lack of substitutes. So we can say that a product is elastic in the industry but the complete industry tends to be inelastic. This is the second factor that effects the demand elasticity and it refers the total amount of a person that can be spend on a particular product or good. Like, if the price of a chocolate goes up from  £1 to  £2 and income of the customer remains the same, the amount that is available to spend on chocolate is for e.g.  £4, is now enough for only 2 rather than 4 chocolates. In other words, the customer is forced to reduce the demand of chocolate. Thus if there is an increase in price and no change in the amount of income available to spend on the product then there will be an elastic reaction in demand. But in cigarette industry it is not that much affected because of the addiction of the consumer. Time is the third factor which influences the demand elasticity. If the price of packet of cigarette goes up  £1, a smoker with a very few available substitutes will continue buying the daily cigarettes. It means that cigarettes have inelastic demand because the changes in price will not have a great influence on the quantity demanded. But if the customer or consumer finds that they are not capable or cannot afford to spend the increased amount then they will definitely try to quit it but in a long run. Then for that customer price elasticity of cigarettes becomes elastic in the long run. If quantity demanded is completely unaffected by a price change, then If the absolute value of the elasticity of demand is less than 1 at some point, we say that demand is inelastic at that point (Varian, 2006, P 282). You would say that demand is perfectly inelastic at that price, to reflect the fact that quantity demanded is completely unresponsive to a change in price. On a graph with price on the y-axis, perfectly inelastic demand appears as a vertical demand curve. Its slope is negative infinity, which leads to Ed = 0. Looking at the graph above, we can see that a 5 percent increase in price causes no change in quantity demanded. Therefore, Ed = 0 and demand is perfectly inelastic for the tobacco industry. Hence, manager of a cigarette company within the industry should not worry about the taxation from the government or increase in price due to the external environment due to the inelastic demand for the tobacco industry. (Source by Begg Ward, 2007) The variation in consumer demand for cigarettes with respect to income is ambiguous from a theoretical stand point. Cigarettes consumption could be a normal good for which the level of consumers demand increases with income. Alternatively, it could also be a lower good for which the consumer demand drops with income levels. In either case, the presence of such behavior gives us no guidance whatsoever with respect to the extent to which these decisions are rational. Similarly the other major factor which can be affected by the price of the cigarettes is supply. Supply for a product or a service can be defined as the quantity of a good, seller wishes to sell at each possible price. Supply of a good refers to various quantities of good which a seller is willing and able to sell at different prices in a given market, at a particular point of time, other things remaining the same. An aspect of supply which needs attention is that supply is related to scarcity. It is only the scarce good which has a supply price. On the contrary, goods which are available freely have no supply price, e.g. Air is available freely and hence, does not have a supply price (Begg et al, 2005). According to Philp, Dan and Galt (2009) supply relative to the tobacco industry is reflective of the number of competitors (m) setting the price of providing cigarettes packets as a function of the level of technology (T) determines the price (pt), cost of resources, for example, labour, taxations, substitutes, and quality within the manufacture process (F1, F2 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Fm) and other charge (w) i.e. cost of machines and salaries of work force, all add up to become determinants of the number of cigarettes packets to be supplied at each given price. It is represented as QtS = T (pt, F1, F2 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Fm, w) Identical to economics in demand, in the analysis of supply all factors are held constant and quantity is seen as a function of price; QtS = T (pt, F1, F2 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Fm, w) Graphically illustrated as; From the above figure managers can know that a investing in manufacturing the product needs a certain level of supply to overcome from they break even point, therefore higher the investment in price the more the supply. Hence cigarette manufacturing companies offer different brands for the taste e.g. long cigarettes, strong and light cigarettes. Consequently, the managers will push for a higher supply in p1 to maximize profit. If there is plenty of spare capacity of Cigarettes then a business should be able to increase its output without a rise in costs and therefore supply will be elastic in response to a change in demand. If stocks of raw materials and finished products are at a high level then a firm is able to respond to a change in demand quickly by supplying these stocks onto the market supply will be elastic. Conversely when stocks are low, dwindling supplies force prices higher and unless stocks can be replenished, supply will be inelastic in response to a change in demand. If both capital and labour resources are occupationally mobile then the elasticity of supply for a product is higher than if capital and labour cannot easily and quickly be switched. Supply Elasticity is a measure of the degree of responsiveness of quantity supplied to changes in the products own price. Elasticity of supply works similarly. If a change in price results in a big change in the amount supplied, the supply curve appears flatter and is considered elastic. Elasticity in this case would be greater than or equal to one (Lipsey Chrystal, 2004) On the other hand, if a big change in price only results in a minor change in the quantity supplied, the supply curve is steeper and its elasticity would be less than one. As we have seen that demand of cigarette is inelastic we can observe from the graph that supply of cigarette is also inelastic i.e. even a big change in price does not have major change in quantity supplied. It means that when a price increases consumers will not demand for more quantity thats why supply will also remain the same. After knowing that the demand and supply for the tobacco industry is inelastic but the competition within the industry is high. The higher price than the competitors can result less demand for the product, the lower price can increase the demand for the product. It influences managerial decision to look for the new markets where they can reduce their operational and manufacturing cost like cheap labour, as well as look for the new market so that the organisation can generate maximum revenue. This content can be found on the following page: http://www.investorwords.com/1396/demand.html Conclusion This essay completely shows us that how the demand and supply take effects into the market and how principles of demand and supply inform the managerial decision making. From this essay we come to know that the cigarette industry is not that much affected from the higher price that much and its demand in the market is almost remain same. From this essay we come to know that both the supply elasticity and demand elasticity for cigarette industry are inelastic, they are not affected by the price. From the essay we come to know that income effect is significant and positive in case of cigarette industry.

Thomas Kuhns Structure of Scientific Revolutions Essays -- Book Revie

The aim of this essay is to provide a summary and critique of Thomas S. Kuhn’s groundbreaking thesis ‘The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.’ This will be done by analyzing his concepts of ‘paradigm’, ‘normal science’ and ‘scientific revolutions.’ Following the overview I will present the example of ‘The Copernican Revolution’ to empirically show a paradigm shift. The rest of the essay is concerned specifically with critically examining Kuhn’s notion of a paradigm and the incommensurability between them. I will show that to define paradigm is a never ending task however this should not hinder the usefulness of the concept itself. Before Kuhn’s book was written, the commonly held position by scientists and philosophers of science, such as Mach and Otswald , about the structure of science; was that it involved linear progression as a result of an incremental accumulation of knowledge from the activities undertaken by members of the scientific community. They thought that as generations of scientists observed more and more, their understanding of a particular scientific fact would become better refined through an ever growing stockpile of facts, theories and methods. The aim of the historian of science would be to pin point the man and the moment in time a further discovery was made; whilst also describing the obstacles that inhibited scientific progression. Then in 1962, Kuhn’s revolutionary book challenged the prevailing model of the history of science and argued for an episodic structure in which periods of conceptual continuity in normal science are interrupted by periods of revolutionary science. I will begin by outlining the core concepts that Kuhn presents at the beginning of his thesis. The backbone of Kuh... ... with its easy and friendly applicability means that it fulfils the aims of which Kuhn wanted. To tell the story of how science was structured. Bibliography Bonini, C. P. (1963). Simulation of information and decision systems in the firm. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall. Kuhn, T. S. (1962. Second Edition, enlarged, 1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago. Masterman, M. (1970). The Nature of a Paradigm. In I. Lakatos, & A. Musgrave (Eds.), Criticism and The Growth of Knowledge (pp. 59-90). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Shapere, D. (1964). Review: The structure of Scientific Revolutions. The Philosophical Review , 73 (3), 383-394. Shapere, D. (1971, May). The Paradigm Concept. Science , 172 (3984), pp. 706-709. Weinberg, S. (1998). Scientific Revolutions. New York Review of Books , XLV (15).

The Ballad Essay -- Literature History

This essay is about the Ballad, contrasting how the ballad went from an oral tradition to the ballad form known today. The Ballad can be any narrative song, but in technical terms a ballad is a specific literary form. The word ballad comes from the Latin and Italian word â€Å"ballare,† meaning â€Å"to dance†. Collins, (1985). The second word translation of â€Å"ballade† comes from the French language and means "dancing song". Oxford, (1995). Therefore a ballad is a song that tells a story, and was originally a musical accompaniment to a dance. Ballads are very old and were handed down orally through generation to generation before they began to be written down. Because of this, most of the surviving ballads have been greatly adapted as they were passed around. However, traditional ballads do share some features. The ballad is a narrative poem of popular origin usually very long, epic in style. The language is simple and is not sentimental. The poem can be about a relationship or an experience, good, bad, triumphant, or tragic, set to music. Hubbell (1923). Ch 235. Furthermore the structure and tone is made up of verses of four lines, with a rhyming pattern, repartition is often found in the ballad, entire stanzas can be repeated, like a chorus, or a repeated with certain words changed. The verse form, sometimes called the "ballad metre†. A question and answer can be built into the stanza and there is a lot of dialogue, with the action often described in the first person. Two characters can talk to one another in alternating lines or stanzas. Hubbell, (1923).ch,235. The core structure for a ballad is a quatrain, written with either a-b-c-b, or a-b-a-b rhyme scheme. "a" stands for one line ending, "b" for another, and "c" for another s... .... 3rd Ed. The Norton Anthology of Poetry. W.W. Norton & company Ltd. London. Bell, R. Ed. (1996). Ancient Poems, Ballads and Songs of the Peasantry of England 1550-1867. http://WWW.Gutenberg.org/ebooks/649. Accessed on 26/12/10 Eddy, S. Ed. (2009). Lyrical Ballads York advanced notes. York Press London. Hubbell, J.B. (1923). An introduction to poetry. The Macmillan company Ltd, London Attained on the kindle HTTP://www.amazon.co.uk/an introduction to poetry. Accessed on the 19/12/10. Mcleod, T. P. Hanks. Eds (1985). Collins Concise English Dictionary. Guild Publishing, London. Palmer, R. (1979). A Ballad History of England from 1588 to present day. The Anchor Press Ltd, Tiptree. Phythian, B.A. (1978). Considering Poetry An Approach to Criticism. Hodder & Stoughton Educational. Sevenoaks. Randall, D. Ed. (1971). The Black Poets. Bantam Books. New York.

Foundation’s Edge CHAPTER FIVE SPEAKER

SPEAKER Trantor! For eight thousand years, it was the capital of a large and mighty political entity that spanned an ever-growing union of planetary systems. For twelve thousand years after that, it was the capital of a political entity that spanned the entire Galaxy. It was the center, the heart, the epitome of the Galactic Empire. It was impossible to think of the Empire without thinking of Trantor. Trantor did not reach its physical peak until the Empire was far gone in decay. In fact, no one noticed that the Empire had lost its drive, its forward look, because Trantor gleamed in shining metal. Its growth had peaked at the point where it was a planet-girdling city. Its population was stabilized (by law) at forty-five billion and the only surface greenery was at the Imperial Palace and the Galactic University/Library complex. Trantor's land surface was metal-coated. Its deserts and its fertile areas were alike engulfed and made into warrens of humanity, administrative jungles, computerized elaborations, vast storehouses of food and replacement parts. its mountain ranges were beaten down; its chasms filled in. The city's endless corridors burrowed under the continental shelves and the oceans were turned into huge underground aquacultural cisterns – the only (and insufficient native source of food and minerals. The connections with the Outer Worlds, from which Trantor obtained the resources it required, depended upon its thousand spaceports, its ten thousand warships, its hundred thousand merchant ships, its million space freighters. No city so vast was ever recycled so tightly. No planet in the Galaxy had ever made so much use of solar power or went to such extremes to rid itself of waste heat. Glittering radiators stretched up into the thin upper atmosphere upon the nightside and were withdrawn into the metal city on the dayside. As the planet turned, the radiators rose as night progressively fell around the world and sank as day progressively broke. So Trantor always had an artificial asymmetry that was almost its symbol. At this peak, Trantor ran the Empire? It ran it poorly, but nothing could have run the Empire well. The Empire was too large to be run from a single world – even under the most dynamic of Emperors. How could Trantor have helped but run it poorly when, in the ages of decay, the Imperial crown was traded back and forth by sly politicians and foolish incompetents and the bureaucracy had become a subculture of corruptibles? But even at its worst, there was some self-propelled worth to the machinery. The Galactic Empire could not have been run without Trantor. The Empire crumbled steadily, but as long as Trantor remained Trantor, a core of the Empire remained and it retained an air of pride, of millennia, of tradition and power and – exaltation. Only when the unthinkable happened – when Trantor finally fell and was sacked; when its citizens were killed by the millions and left to starve by the billions; when its mighty metal coating was scarred and punctured and fused by the attack of the â€Å"barbarian† fleet – only then was the Empire considered to have fallen. The surviving remnants on the once-great world undid further what had been left and, in a generation, Trantor was transformed from the greatest planet the human race had ever seen to an inconceivable tangle of ruins. That had been nearly two and a half centuries ago. In the rest of the Galaxy, Trantor-as-it-had-been still was not forgotten. It would live forever as the favored site of historical novels, the favored symbol and memory of the past, the favored word for sayings such as â€Å"All starships land on Trantor,† â€Å"Like looking for a person in Trantor,† and â€Å"No more alike than this and Trantor.† In all the rest of the Galaxy – But that was not true on Trantor itself! Here the old Trantor was forgotten. The surface metal seas gone, almost everywhere. Trantor was now a sparsely settled world of self-sufficient farmers, a place where trading ships rarely came and were not particularly welcome when they did come. The very word â€Å"Trantor,† though still in official use, had dropped out of popular speech. By present-day Trantorians, it was called â€Å"Hame,† which in their dialect was what would be called â€Å"Home† in Galactic Standard. Quindor Shandess thought of all this and much more as he sat quietly in a welcome state of half-drowse, in which he could allow his mind to run along a self-propelled and unorganized stream of thought. He had been First Speaker of the Second Foundation for eighteen years, and he might well bold on for ten or twelve years more if his mind remained reasonably vigorous and if he could continue to fight the political wars. He was the analog, the mirror image, of the Mayor of Terminus, who ruled over the First Foundation, but how different they were in every respect. The Mayor of Terminus was known to all the Galaxy and the First Foundation was therefore simply â€Å"the Foundation† to all the worlds. The First Speaker of the Second Foundation was known only to his associates. And yet it was the Second Foundation, under himself and his predecessors, who held the real power. The First Foundation was supreme in the realm of physical power, of technology, of war weapons. The Second Foundation was supreme in the realm of mental power, of the mind, of the ability to control. In any conflict between the two, what would it matter how many ships and weapons the First Foundation disposed of, if the Second Foundation could control the minds of those who controlled the ships and weapons? But how long could he revel in this realization of secret power? He was the twenty-fifth First Speaker and his incumbency was already a shade longer than average. Ought he, perhaps, not be too keen on holding on and keeping out the younger aspirants? There was Speaker Gendibal, the keenest and newest at the Table. Tonight they would spend time together and Shandess looked forward to it. Ought he look forward also to Gendibal's possible accession some day? The answer to the question was that Shandess had no real thought of leaving his post. He enjoyed it too much. He sat there, in his old age, still perfectly capable of performing his duties. His hair was gray, but it had always been light in color and he wore it cut an inch long so that the color scarcely mattered. His eyes were a faded blue and his clothing conformed to the drab styling of the Trantorian farmers. The First Speaker could, if he wished, pass among the Hamish people as one of them, but his hidden power nevertheless existed. He could choose to focus his eyes and mind at any time and they would then act according to his will and recall nothing about it afterward. It rarely happened. Almost never. The Golden Rule of the Second Foundation was, â€Å"Do nothing unless you must, and when you must act – hesitate.† The First Speaker sighed softly. Living in the old University, with the brooding grandeur of the ruins of the Imperial Palace not too far distant, made one wonder on occasion how Golden the Rule might be. In the days of the Great Sack, the Golden Rule had been strained to the breaking point. There was no way of saving Trantor without sacrificing the Seldon Plan for establishing a Second Empire. It would have been humane to spare the forty-five billion, but they could not have been spared without retention of the core of the First Empire and that would have only delayed the reckoning. If would have led to a greater destruction some centuries later and perhaps no Second Empire ever The early First Speakers had worked over the clearly foreseen Sack for decades but had found no solution – no way of assuring both the salvation of Trantor and the eventual establishment of the Second Empire. The lesser evil had to be chosen and Trantor had died! The Second Foundatianers of the time had managed – by the narrowest of margins – to save the University/Library complex and there had been guilt forever after because of that, too. Though no one had ever demonstrated that saving the complex had led to the of the Mule, there was always the intuition that there was a connection. How nearly that had wrecked everything! Yet following the decades of the Sack acrd the Mule came the Golden Age of the Second Foundation. Prior to that, for over two and a half centuries after Seldon's death, the Second Foundation had burrowed like moles into the Library, intent only on staying out of the way of the Imperials. They served as librarians in a decaying society that cared less and less for the ever-more-misnamed Galactic Library, which fell into the desuetude that best suited the purpose of the Second Foundationers. It was an ignoble life. They merely conserved the Plan, while out at the end of the Galaxy, the First Foundation fought for its life against always greater enemies with neither help from the Second Foundation nor any real knowledge of it. It was the Great Sack that liberated the Second Foundation – another reason (young Gendibal – who had courage – had recently said that it was the chief reason) why the Sack was allowed to proceed. After the Great Sack, the Empire was gone and, in all the later times, the Trantorian survivors never trespassed on Second Foundation territory uninvited. The Second Foundationers saw to it that the University/Library complex which had survived the Sack also survived the Great Renewal. The ruins of the Palace were preserved, too. The metal was gone over almost all the rest of the world. The great and endless corridors were covered up, filled in, twisted, destroyed, ignored; all under rock and soil – all except here, where metal still surrounded the ancient open places. It might be viewed as a grand memorial of greatness, the sepulcher of Empire, but to the Trantorians – the Hamish people – these were haunted places, filled with ghosts, not to be stirred. Only the Second Foundationers ever set foot in the ancient corridors or touched the titanium gleam. And even so, all had nearly come to nothing because of the Mule. The Mule had actually been on Trantor. What if he had found out the nature of the world he had been standing on? His physical weapons were far greater than those at the disposal of the Second Foundation, his mental weapons almost as great. The Second Foundation would have been hampered always by the necessity of doing nothing but what they must, and by the knowledge that almost any hope of tinning the immediate fight might portend a greater eventual loss. Had it not been for Banta Darell and her swift moment of action. And that, too, had been without the help of the Second Foundation? And then – the Golden age, when somehow the First Speakers of the time found ways of becoming active, stopping the Mule in his career of conquest, controlling his mind at last; and then stopping the First Foundation itself when it grew wary and overcurious concerning the nature and identity of the Second Foundation. There was Preem Palver, nineteenth First Speaker and greatest of them all, who had managed to put an end to all danger – not without terrible sacrifice – and who had rescued the Seldon Plan. Now, for a hundred and twenty years, the Second Foundation was again as it once had been, hiding in a haunted portion of Trantor. They were hiding no longer from the Imperials, but from the First Foundation still – a First Foundation almost as large as the Galactic Empire had been and even greater in technological expertise. The First Speaker's eyes closed in the pleasant warmth and he passed into that never-never state of relaxing hallucinatory experiences that were not quite dreams and not quite conscious thought. Enough of gloom. All would be well. Trantor was still capital of the Galaxy, for the Second Foundation was here and it was mightier and more in control than ever the Emperor had been. The First Foundation would be contained and guided and would move correctly. However formidable their ships and weapons, they could do nothing as long as key leaders could be, at need, mentally controlled. And the Second Empire would come, but it would not be like the first. It would be a Federated Empire, with its parts possessing considerable self-rule, so that there would be none of the apparent strength and actual weakness of a unitary, centralized government. The new Empire would be looser, more pliant, more flexible, more capable of withstanding strain, and it would be guided always – always – by the hidden men and women of the Second Foundation. Trantor would then be still the capital, more powerful with its forty thousand psychohistorians than ever it had been with its forty-five billion – The First Speaker snapped awake. The sun was lower in the sky. Had he been mumbling? Had he said anything aloud? If the Second Foundation had to know much and say little, the ruling Speakers had to know mere and say less, and the First Speaker lead to know mist and say least. He smiled wryly. It was always so tempting to become a Trantorian patriot – to see the whole purpose of the Second Empire as that of bringing about Trantorian hegemony. Seldon had warned of it; he had foreseen even that, five centuries before it could come to pass. The First Speaker had not slept too long, however. It was not yet time for Gendibal's audience. Shandess was looking forward to that private meeting. Gendibal was young enough to look at the Plan with new eyes, and keen enough to see what others might not. And it was not beyond possibility that Shandess would learn from what the youngster had to say. No one would ever be certain how much Preem Palver – the great Palver himself – had profited from that day when the young Kol Benjoam, not yet thirty, came to talk to him about possible ways of handling the First Foundation. Benjoam, who was later recognized as the greatest theorist since Seldon, never spoke of that audience in later years, but eventually he became the twenty-first First Speaker. There were some who credited Benjoam, rather than Palver, for the great accomplishments of Palver's administration. Shandess amused himself with the thought of what Gendibal might say. It was traditional that keen youngsters, confronting the First Speaker alone for the first time, would place their entire thesis in the first sentence. And surely they would not ask for that precious first audience for something trivial – something that might ruin their entire subsequent career by convincing the First Speaker they were lightweights. Four hours later, Gendibal faced him. The young man showed no sign of nervousness. He waited calmly for Shandess to speak first. Shandess said, â€Å"You have asked for a private audience, Speaker, on a matter of importance. Could you please summarize the matter for me?† And Gendibal, speaking quietly, almost as though he were describing what he had just eaten at dinner, said, â€Å"First Speaker, the Seldon Plan is meaningless!† Stor Gendibal did not require the evidence of others to give him a sense of worth. He could not recall a time when he did not know himself to be unusual. He had been recruited for the Second Foundation when he was only a ten-year-old boy by an agent who had recognized the potentialities of his mind. He had then done remarkably well at his studies and had taken to psychohistory as a spaceship responds to a gravitational field. Psychohistory had pulled at him and he had curved toward it, reading Seldon's text on the fundamentals when others his age were merely trying to handle differential equations. When he was fifteen, he entered Trantor's Galactic University (as the University of Trantor had been officially renamed), after an interview during which, when asked what his ambitions were, he had answered firmly, â€Å"To be First Speaker before I am forty.† He had not bothered to aim for the First Speaker's chair without qualification. To gain it, one way or another, seemed to him to be a certainty. It was to do it in youth that seemed to him to be the goal. Even Preem Palver bad been forty-two on his accession. The interviewer's expression had flickered when Gendibal had said that, but the young man already had the feel of psycholanguage and could interpret that flicker. He knew, as certainly as though the interviewer had announced it, that a small notation would go on his records to the effect that he would be difficult to handle. Well, of course! Gendibal intended to be difficult to handle. He was thirty now. He would be thirty-one in a matter of two months and he was already a member of the Council of Speakers. He had nine years, at most, to become First Speaker and he knew he would make it. This audience with the present First Speaker was crucial to his plans and, laboring to present precisely the proper impression, he had. spared no effort to polish his command of psycholanguage. When two Speakers of the Second Foundation communicate with each other, the language is like no other in the Galaxy. It is as much a language of fleeting gestures as of words, as much a matter of detected mental – change patterns as anything else. An outsider would hear little or nothing, but in a short time, much in the way of thought would be exchanged and the communication would be unreportable in its literal form to anyone but still another Speaker. The language of Speakers had its advantage in speed and in infinite delicacy, but it had the disadvantage of making it almost impossible to mask true opinion. Gendibal knew his own opinion of the First Speaker. He felt the First Speaker to be a man past his mental prime. The First Speaker – in Gendibal's assessment – expected no crisis, was not trained to meet one, and lacked the sharpness to deal with one if it appeared. With all Shandess's goodwill and amiability, he was the stuff of which disaster was made. All of this Gendibal had to hide not merely from words, gestures, and facial expressions, but even from his thoughts. He knew no way of doing so efficiently enough to keep the First Speaker from catching a whiff of it. Nor could Gendibal avoid knowing something of the First Speaker's feeling toward him. Through bonhomie and goodwill – quite apparent and reasonably sincere – Gendibal could feel the distant edge of condescension and amusement, and tightened his own mental grip to avoid revealing any resentment in return – or as little as possible. The First Speaker smiled and leaned back in his chair. He did not actually lift his feet to the desk top, but he got across just the right mixture of self-assured ease and informal friendship – just enough of each to leave Gendibal uncertain as to the effect of his statement. Since Gendibal had not been invited to sit down, the actions and attitudes available to him that might be designed to minimize the uncertainty were limited. It was impossible that the First Speaker did not understand this. Shandess said, â€Å"The Seldon Plan is meaningless? What a remarkable statement! Have you looked at the Prime Radiant lately, Speaker Gendibal?† â€Å"I study it frequently, First Speaker. It is my duty to do so and my pleasure as well.† â€Å"Do you, by any chance, study only those portions of it that fall under your purview, now and then? Do you observe it in microfashion – an equation system here, an adjustment rivulet there? Highly important, of course, but I have always thought it an excellent occasional exercise to observe the whole course. Studying the Prime Radiant, acre by acre, has its uses – but observing it as a continent is inspirational. To tell you the truth, Speaker, I have not done it for a long time myself. Would you join me?† Gendibal dared not pause too long. It had to be done, and it must be done easily and pleasantly or it might as well not be done. â€Å"It would be an honor and a pleasure, First Speaker.† The First Speaker depressed a lever on the side of his desk. T here was one such in the office of every Speaker and the one in Gendibal's office was in no way inferior to that of the First Speaker. The Second Foundation was an equalitarian society in all its surface manifestations – the unimportant ones. In fact, the only official prerogative of the First Speaker was that which was explicit in his title he always spoke first. The room grew dark with the depression of the lever but, almost at once, the darkness lifted into a pearly dimness. Both long walls turned faintly creamy, then brighter and whiter, and finally there appeared neatly printed equations – so small that they could not be easily read. â€Å"If you have no objections,† said the First Speaker, making it quite clear that there would be none allowed, â€Å"we will reduce the magnification in order to see as much at one time as we can.† The neat printing shrank down into fine hairlines, faint black meanderings over the pearly background. The First Speaker touched the keys of the small console built into the arm of his chair. â€Å"We'll bring it back to the start – to the lifetime of Hari Seldon – and we'll adjust it to a small forward movement. We'll shutter it so that we can only see a decade of development at a time. It gives one a wonderful feeling of the flow of history, with no distractions by the details. I wonder if you have ever done this.† â€Å"Never exactly this way, First Speaker.† â€Å"You should. It's a marvelous feeling. Observe the sparseness of the black tracery at the start. There was not much chance for alternatives in the first few decades. The branch points, however, increase exponentially with time. Were it not for the fact that, as soon as a particular branch is taken, there is an extinction of a vast array of others in its future, all would soon become unmanageable. Of course, in dealing with the future, we must be careful what extinctions we rely upon.† â€Å"I know, First Speaker.† There was a touch of dryness in Gendibal's response that he could not quire remove. The First Speaker did not respond to it. â€Å"Notice the winding lines of symbols in red. There is a pattern to them. To all appearances, they should exist randomly, as even Speaker earns his place by adding refinements to Seldon's original Plan. It would seem there is no way, after all, of predicting where a refinement can be added easily or where a particular Speaker will find his interests or his ability tending, and yet I have long suspected that the admixture of Seldon Black and Speaker Red follows a strict law that is strongly dependent on time and on very little else.† Gendibal watched as the years passed and as the black and red hairlines made an almost hypnotic interlacing pattern. The pattern meant nothing in itself, of course. What counted were the symbols of which it was composed. Here and there a bright-blue rivulet made its appearance, bellying out; branching, and becoming prominent, then falling in upon itself and fading into the black or red. The First Speaker said, â€Å"Deviation Blue,† and the feeling of distaste, originating in each, filled the space between them. â€Å"We catch it over and over, and we'll be coming to the Century of Deviations eventually.† They did. One could tell precisely when the shattering phonemenon of the Mule momentarily filled the Galaxy, as the Prime Radiant suddenly grew thick with branching rivulets of blue – more starting than could be closed down – until the room itself seemed to turn blue as the lines thickened and marked the wall with brighter and brighter pollution. (It was the only word.) It reached its peak and then faded, thinned, and came together for a long century before it trickled to its end at last. When it was gone, and when the Plan had returned to black and red, it was clear that Preem Palver's hand had been there. Onward, onward â€Å"That's the present,† said the First Speaker comfortably. Onward, onward Then a narrowing into a veritable knot of close-knit black with little red in it. â€Å"That's the establishment of the Second Empire,† said the First Speaker. He shut off the Prime Radiant and the room was bathed in ordinary light. Gendibal said, â€Å"That was an emotional experience.† â€Å"Yes,† smiled the First Speaker, â€Å"and you are careful not to identify the emotion, as far as you can manage to fail to identify it. It doesn't matter. Let me make the points I wish to make. â€Å"You will notice, first, the all-but-complete absence of Deviation Blue after the time of Preem Palver – over the last twelve decades, in other words. You will notice that there are no reasonable probabilities of Deviations above the fifth-class over the next five centuries. You will notice, too, that we have begun extending the refinements of psychohistory beyond the establishment of the Second Empire. As you undoubtedly know, Hari Seldon – although a transcendent genius – is not, and could not, be all-knowing. We have improved on him. We know more about psychohistory than he could possibly have known. â€Å"Seldon ended his calculations with the Second Empire and we have continued beyond it. Indeed, if I may say so without offense, the new Hyper-Plan that goes past the establishment of the Second Empire is very largely my doing and has earned me my present post. â€Å"I tell you all this so that you can spare me unnecessary talk. With all this, how do you manage to conclude that the Seldon Plan is meaningless? It is without flaw. The mere fact that it survived the Century of Deviations – with all due respect to Palver's genius – is the best evidence we have that it is without flaw. Where is its weakness, young man, that you should brand the Plan as meaningless?† Gendibal stood stiffly upright. â€Å"You are right, First Speaker. The Seldon Plan has no flaw.† â€Å"You withdraw your remark, then?† â€Å"No, First Speaker. Its lack of flaw is its flaw. Its flawlessness is fatal!† The First Speaker regarded Gendibal with equanimity. He had learned to control his expressions and it amused him to watch Gendibal's ineptness in this respect. At every exchange, the young man did his best to hide his feelings, but each time, he exposed them completely. Shandess studied him dispassionately. He was a thin young man, not much above the middle height, with thin lips and bony, restless hands. He had dark, humorless eyes that tended to smolder. He would be, the First Speaker knew, a hard person to talk out of his convictions. â€Å"You speak in paradoxes, Speaker,† he said. â€Å"It sounds like a paradox, First Speaker, because there is so much about Seldon's Plan that we take for granted and accept in so unquestioning a manner.† â€Å"And what is it you question, then?† â€Å"The Plan's very basis. We all know that the Plan will not work if its nature – or even its existence – is known to too many of those whose behavior it is designed to predict.† â€Å"I believe Hari Seldon understood that. I even believe he made it one of his two fundamental axioms of psychohistory.† â€Å"He did not anticipate the Mule, First Speaker, and therefore he could not anticipate the extent to which the Second Foundation would become an obsession with the people of the First Foundation, once they had been shown its importance by the Mule.† â€Å"Hari Seldon†¦Ã¢â‚¬  and for one moment, the First Speaker shuddered and fell silent. Hari Seldon's physical appearance was known to all the members of the Second Foundation. Reproductions of him in two and in three dimensions, photographic and holographic, in bas-relief and in the round, sitting and standing, were ubiquitous. They all represented him in the last few years of his life. All were of an old and benign man, face wrinkled with the wisdom of the aged, symbolizing the quintessence of well-ripened genius. But the First Speaker now recalled seeing a photograph reputed to be Seldon as a young man. The photograph was neglected, since the thought of a young Seldon was almost a contradiction in terms. Yet Shandess had seen it, and the thought had suddenly come to him that Stor Gendibal looked remarkably like the young Seldon. Ridiculous? It was the sort of superstition that afflicted everyone, now and then, however rational they might be. He was deceived by a fugitive similarity. If he had the photograph before him, he would see at once that the similarity was an illusion. Yet why should that silly thought have occurred to him now? He recovered. It had been a momentary quaver – a transient derailment of thought – too brief to be noticed by anyone but a Speaker. Gendibal might interpret it as he pleased. â€Å"Hari Seldon,† he said very firmly the second time, â€Å"knew well that there were an infinite number of possibilities he could not foresee, and it was for that reason that he set up the Second Foundation. We did not foresee the Mule either, but tie recognized him once he was upon us and we stopped him. We did not foresee the subsequent obsession of the First Foundation with ourselves, but we saw it when it came and we stopped it. What is it about this that you can possibly find fault with?† â€Å"For one thing,† said Gendibal, â€Å"the obsession of the First Foundation with us is not yet over.† There was a distinct ebb in the deference with which Gendibal had been speaking. He had noted the quaver in the First Speaker's voice (Shandess decided) and had interpreted it as uncertainty. That had to be countered. The First Speaker said briskly, â€Å"Let me anticipate. There would be people on the First Foundation, who – comparing the hectic difficulties of the first nearly four centuries of existence with the placidity of the last twelve decades – will come to the conclusion that this cannot be unless the Second Foundation is taking good care of the Plan – and, of course, they will be right in so concluding. They will decide that the Second Foundation may not have been destroyed after all – and, of course, they will be right in so deciding. In fact, we've received reports that there is a young man on the First Foundation's capital world of Terminus, an official of their government, who is quite convinced of all this. – I forget his name†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Golan Trevize,† said Gendibal softly. â€Å"It was I who first noted the matter in the reports, and it was I who directed the matter to your office.† â€Å"Oh?† said the First Speaker with exaggerated politeness. â€Å"And how did your attention come to be focused on him?† â€Å"One of our agents on Terminus sent in a tedious report on the newly elected members of their Council – a perfectly routine matter usually sent to and ignored by all Speakers. This one caught my eye because of the nature of the description of one new Councilman, Golan Trevize. From the description, he seemed unusually self-assured and combative.† â€Å"You recognized a kindred spirit, did you?† â€Å"Not at all,† said Gendibal, stiffly. â€Å"He seemed a reckless person who enjoyed doing ridiculous things, a description which does not apply to me. In any case, I directed an in-depth study. It did not take long for me to decide that he would have made good material for us if he had been recruited at an early age.† â€Å"Perhaps,† said the First Speaker, â€Å"but you know that we do not recruit on Terminus.† â€Å"I know that well. In any case, even without our training, he has an unusual intuition. It is, of course, thoroughly undisciplined. I was, therefore. Not particularly surprised that he ad grasped the fact that the Second Foundation still exists. I felt it important enough, however, to direct a memo on the matter to your office.† â€Å"And I take it from your manner that there is a new development?† â€Å"Having grasped the fact that we still exist, thanks to his highly developed intuitive abilities, he then used it in a characteristically undisciplined fashion and has, as a result, been exiled from Terminus.† The First Speaker lifted his eyebrows. â€Å"You stop suddenly. You want me to interpret the significance. Without using my computer, let me mentally apply a rough approximation of Seldon's equations and guess that a shrewd Mayor, capable of suspecting that the Second Foundation exists, prefers not to have an undisciplined individual shout it to the Galaxy and thus alert said Second Foundation to the danger. I take it Branno the Bronze decided that Terminus is safer with Trevize off the planet.† â€Å"She might have imprisoned Trevize or had him quietly assassinated.† â€Å"The equations are not reliable when applied to individuals, as you well know. They deal only with humanity in mass. Individual behavior is therefore unpredictable and it is possible to assume that the Mayor is a humane individual who feels imprisonment, let alone assassination, is unmerciful.† Gendibal said nothing for a while. It was an eloquent nothing, and he maintained it just long enough for the First Speaker to grow uncertain of himself but not so long as to induce a defensive anger. He timed it to the second and then he said, â€Å"That is not my interpretation. I believe that Trevize, at this moment, represents the cutting edge of the greatest threat to the Second Foundation in its history – a greater danger even than the Mule!† Gendibal was satisfied. The force of the statement had worked well. The First Speaker had not expected it and was caught off-balance. From this moment, the whip hard was Gendibal's. If he had any doubt of that at all, it vanished with Shandess's next remark. â€Å"Does this have anything to do with your contention that Seldon's Plan is meaningless?† Gendibal gambled on complete certainty, driving in with a didacticism that would not allow the First Speaker to recover. He said, â€Å"First Speaker, it is an article of faith that it was Preem Palver who restored the Plan to its course after the wild aberrance of the Century of Deviations. Study the Prime Radiant and you will see that the Deviations did not disappear till two decades after Palver's death and that not one Deviation has appeared since. The credit might rest with the First Speakers since Palver, but that is improb – â€Å"Improbable? Granted none of us have been Palvers, but – why â€Å"Will you allow me to demonstrate, First Speaker? Using the mathematics of psychohistory, I can clearly show that the chances of total disappearance of Deviation are too microscopically small to have taken place through anything the Second Foundation can do. You need not allow me if you lack the time or the desire for the demonstration, which will take half an hour of close attention. I can, as an alternative, call for a full meeting of the Speaker's Table and demonstrate it there. But that would mean a loss of time for me and unnecessary controversy.† â€Å"Yes, and a possible loss of face for me. – Demonstrate the matter to me now. But a word of warning.† The First Speaker was making a heroic effort to recover. â€Å"If what you show me is worthless, I will not forget that.† â€Å"If it proves worthless,† said Gendibal with an effortless pride that overrode the other, â€Å"you will have my resignation on the spot.† It took, actually, considerably more than half an hour, for the First Speaker questioned the mathematics with near-savage intensity. Gendibal made up some of the time by his smooth use of his MicroRadiant. The device – which could locate any portion of the vast Plan holographically and with required n either wall nor desk sized console – had come into use only a decade ago and the First Speaker had never learned the knack of handling it. Gendibal was aware of that. The First Speaker knew that he was. Gendibal hooked it over his rigth thumb and manipulated it with his four fingers, using his hand deliberately as though it were a musical instrument. (Indeed, he had written a small paper on the analogies.) The equations Gendibal produced (and found with sure ease) moved back and forth snakily to accompany his commentary. He could obtain definitions, if necessary; set up axioms; and produce graphics, both two-dimensional and three-dimensional (to say nothing of projections of multidimensional relationships). Gendibal's commentary was clear and incisive and the First Speaker abandoned the game. He was won over and said, â€Å"I do not recall having seen an analysis of this nature. Whose work is it?† â€Å"First Speaker, it is my own. I have published the basic mathematics involved.† â€Å"Very clever, Speaker Gendibal. Something like this will put you in line for the First Speakership, should I die – or retire.† â€Å"I have given that matter no thought, First Speaker – but since there's no chance of your believing that, I withdraw the comment. I have given it thought and I hope I will be First Speaker, since whoever succeeds to the post must follow a procedure that only I see clearly.† â€Å"Yes,† said the First Speaker, â€Å"inappropriate modesty can be very dangerous. What procedure? Perhaps the present First Speaker may follow it, too. If I am too old to have made the creative leap you have, I am not so old that I cannot follow your direction.† It was a graceful surrender and Gendibal's heart warned, rather unexpectedly, toward the older man, even as he realized that this was precisely the First Speaker's intention. â€Å"Thank you, First Speaker, for I will need your help badly. I cannot expect to sway the Table without your enlightened leadership.† (Grace for grace.) â€Å"I assume, then, that you have already seen from what I have demonstrated that it is impossible for the Century of Deviations to have been corrected under our policies or for all Deviations to have ceased since then.† â€Å"This is clear to me,† said the First Speaker. â€Å"If your mathematics is correct, then in order for the Plan to have recovered as it did and to work as perfectly as it seems to be working, it would be necessary for us to be able to predict the reactions of small groups of people – even of individuals – with some degree of assurance.† â€Å"Quite so. Since the mathematics of psychohistory does not allow this, the Deviations should not have vanished and, even more so, should not have remained absent. You see, then, what I meant when I said earlier that the flaw in the Seldon Plan was its flawlessness.† The First Speaker said, â€Å"Either the Seldon Plan does possess Deviations, then, or there is something wrong in your mathematics. Since I must admit that the Seldon Plan has not shown Deviations in a century and more, it follows that there is something wrong with your mathematics – except that I detected no fallacies or missteps.† â€Å"You do wrong,† said Gendibal, â€Å"to exclude a third alternative. It is quite possible for the Seldon Plan to possess no Deviations and yet for there to be nothing wrong in my mathematics when it predicts that to be impossible.† â€Å"I fail to see the third alternative.† â€Å"Suppose the Seldon Plan is being controlled by means of a psychohistorical method so advanced that the reactions of small groups of people – even perhaps of individual persons – can be predicted, a method that we of the Second Foundation do not possess. Then, and only then, my mathematics would predict that the Seldon Plan should indeed experience no Deviations?† For a while (by Second Foundation standards) the First Speaker made no response. He said, â€Å"There is no such advanced psychohistorical method that is known to me or, I am certain from your manner, to you. If you and I know of none, the chance that any other Speaker, or any group of Speakers, has developed such a micropsychohistory – if I may call it that – and has kept it secret from the rest of the Table is infinitesimally small. Don't you agree?† â€Å"I agree.† â€Å"Then either your analysis is wrong or else micropsychohistory is in the hands of some group outside the Second Foundation.† â€Å"Exactly, First Speaker, the latter alternative must be correct.† â€Å"Can you demonstrate the truth of such a statement?† â€Å"I cannot, in any formal way; but consider. – Has there not already been a person who could affect the Seldon Plan by dealing with individual people?† â€Å"I presume you are referring to the Mule.† â€Å"Yes, certainly.† â€Å"The Mule could only disrupt. The problem here is that the Seldon Plan is working too well, considerably closer to perfection than your mathematics would allow. You would need an Anti-Mule – someone who is as capable of overriding the Plan as the Mule was, but who acts for the opposite motive – overriding not to disrupt but to perfect.† â€Å"Exactly, First Speaker. I wish I had thought of that expression. What was the Mule? A mutant. But where did he come from? How did he come to be? no one really knows. Might there not be more?† â€Å"Apparently not. The one thing that is best known about the Mule is that he was sterile. Hence his name. Or do you think that is a myth?† â€Å"I am not referring to descendants of the Mule. Might it not be that the Mule was an aberrant member of what is – or has now become – a sizable group of people with Mulish powers who – for some reason of their own – are not disrupting the Seldon Plan but supporting it?† â€Å"Why in the Galaxy should they support it?† â€Å"Why do we support it? We plan a Second Empire in which we – or, rather, our intellectual descendants – will be the decision makers. If, some other group is supporting the Plan even more efficiently than we are, they cannot be planning to leave the decision – making to us. They will make the decisions – but to what end? Ought we not try to find out what kind of a Second Empire they are sweeping us into?† â€Å"And how do you propose to find out?† â€Å"Well, why has the Mayor of Terminus exiled Golan Trevize? By doing so, she allows a possibly dangerous person to move freely about the Galaxy. That she does it out of motives of humanity, I cannot believe. Historically the rulers of the First Foundation have always acted realistically, which means, usually, without regard for ‘morality.' One of their heroes – Salvor Hardin – counseled against morality, in fact. No, I think the Mayor acted under compulsion from agents of the Anti-Mules, to use your phrase. I think Trevize has been recruited by them and I think he is the spearhead of danger to us. Deadly danger.† And the First Speaker said, â€Å"By Seldon, you may be right. But how will we ever convince the Table of this?† â€Å"First Speaker, you underestimate your eminence.†